Europe Faces Rising Dependence on US Gas as Russian Supplies Fade

Europe's search for energy security after the collapse of its Russian gas relationship is producing an uncomfortable possibility: the continent may be exchanging one dependency for another rather than escaping dependence itself.

According to a report released on May 13, 2026 by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, European countries could obtain 80% of their liquefied natural gas from the United States by 2028. The group also said the U.S. is already on course to become Europe's largest gas supplier this year when LNG and pipeline flows are considered together.

The shift is easy to understand. Europe has been moving to eliminate Russian gas from its energy system, including bans and scheduled phaseouts affecting both LNG and pipeline imports. In the short term, American LNG has been one of the few sources large enough to fill a major part of that gap.

But scale creates its own risk. Dependence on a single external supplier leaves Europe vulnerable to price shocks, foreign-policy friction, infrastructure bottlenecks and strategic pressure. Even when the supplier is an ally, concentration can still limit policy flexibility.

The report's warning is therefore not anti-American so much as anti-fragility. It argues that a resilient energy system should avoid replacing one chokepoint with another, particularly at a time when global fuel markets remain volatile and geopolitical conflict can rapidly change costs.

This matters beyond security policy. High oil and gas prices affect inflation, industrial competitiveness and household living standards, meaning energy sourcing decisions shape the wider economy. Europe has already learned that lesson painfully in recent years.

The researchers recommend accelerating investment in renewables, electrification and heat pumps so that the region reduces its exposure to imported fossil fuels altogether. That approach treats the real problem not as who sells the gas, but how much gas Europe still needs.

As of May 13, 2026, the continent's transition remains incomplete. Europe has made substantial progress in cutting Russian dependence, but the next stage will determine whether it achieves genuine energy autonomy or simply redraws the map of reliance with the same underlying weakness.