Europe's Gas Shift Away From Russia Could Create a New Vulnerability

Europe's effort to break from Russian gas could leave it increasingly dependent on the United States instead, according to a report released on Wednesday by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.

The researchers said European countries are on track to import 80% of their liquefied natural gas from the U.S. by 2028. They also estimate that roughly two-thirds of Europe's LNG in 2026 will come from American exporters.

That reflects the continent's rapid energy realignment. As the European Union phases out Russian pipeline gas and LNG, it has turned to alternative suppliers, with the U.S. emerging as the dominant replacement.

The report argues that this shift solves one immediate geopolitical problem while potentially creating another. Heavy reliance on a single supplier can expose Europe to pricing pressure, diplomatic friction and sudden disruption if markets or politics change.

This concern is especially relevant because Europe remains highly exposed to imported fuels overall. When oil and gas prices rise, households, businesses and governments across the region feel the impact quickly.

The researchers therefore recommend that Europe reduce demand for imported gas altogether by investing more aggressively in renewables, heat pumps and other technologies that improve energy independence.

The timing of the warning matters. The continent is still navigating the long consequences of the Russian energy shock, and policymakers are under pressure to balance affordability, security and climate goals at the same time.

The deeper policy question is whether replacing one dominant supplier with another represents a real solution. If energy resilience is the goal, the report suggests Europe may need to diversify faster and consume less gas, not simply buy the same fuel from a different country.